Institute for the Study of War: The Kremlin is preparing “false flag” operations in Moldova and on the Ukraine-Belarus border

Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the Kremlin is preparing “false flag” operations in Moldova and the Chernihiv region — on the border of Ukraine and Belarus.

Analysts note that, according to the intelligence of Ukraine, near the border of Russia and Belarus with the Chernihiv region, the movement of columns of military equipment without identification marks was recorded, accompanied by servicemen dressed in a uniform similar to Ukrainian.

According to ISW experts, the purpose of these maneuvers may be to accuse Ukraine of violating the territorial integrity of Belarus in order to force Alexander Lukashenko to enter the war: he previously stated that he would do this only in the event of an attack from Ukraine. At the same time, ISW believes that an attack by Belarus or Russia on the northern regions of Ukraine still remains unlikely.

Another goal of the operation may be to divert Ukrainian forces to the northern border in order to weaken the defense of Ukraine in the east, analysts say.